Mỹ lại cho máy bay đem 79 tấn vũ khí tới Ukraine. Đây là lần thứ 3.

https://www.merkur.de/politik/ukraine-konflikt-usa-putin-krise-krieg-scholz-eu-nord-stream-zr-91258269.html

Russian special forces and spies ALREADY in Ukraine in “significant” numbers

Mirror.co.uk

Russia’s GRU military intelligence unit and Spetsnaz crack troops are believed already to be in Ukraine preparing for war. Britain has given thousands of NLAW anti-tank missiles to Kyiv’s forces

A British military instructor trains Ukrainian service members to use the next generation light anti-tank weapon, NLAW

A British military instructor trains Ukrainian service members to use the next generation light anti-tank weapon, NLAW(via REUTERS)

By Chris Hughes
19:47, 25 Jan 2022UPDATED08:24, 26 Jan 2022
Russian special forces and spies are in Ukraine in “significant” numbers - in the starkest warning of oncoming war, Britain has revealed.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said Moscow’s elite forces have advanced across the border ahead of the main force of combat troops.

The Mirror has learned Russia’s GRU military intelligence unit and Spetsnaz crack troops are believed already to be in Ukraine preparing for war.

They are seen as an advance party appearing to plot an attack by 126,000 regular forces gathered at Ukraine’s eastern flank as well as thousands more in Belarus.

It came as British special forces are preparing for a mass evacuation of more than 1,000 British nationals if they become stranded.

Ben Wallace
Ben Wallace said Moscow's elite forces have advanced across the border(via REUTERS)

They are being told to register with the skeleton embassy left in Kyiv, from where they will be air-evacuated or bussed by road 350 miles east to Poland.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned British troops could soon be sent to eastern Europe to help bolster NATO against Russia.

Mr Wallace told the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee there were individuals already in Ukraine “linked to the Russian state in ways that are not conventional” and “that should give cause for concern”.

He added: “We are becoming aware of a significant number of individuals that are assessed to be associated with Russian military advance force operations that currently are located in Ukraine.

“And that is what we expect to see next and what we’re seeing now.”

Boris Johnson warned British troops could soon be sent to eastern Europe(PRU/AFP via Getty Images)
Ukraine’s SBU intelligence and security agency is working round the clock to seize Russian spooks trying to pinpoint the country’s defences.

Several have been arrested in the contested Donbas area in recent months and Ukraine forces have massively locked down security.

Russian covert operatives in Ukraine will be preparing espionage, sabotage operations and anything to undermine Ukraine’s defences.

Britain has given thousands of NLAW anti-tank missiles to Kyiv’s forces to help them hold back a Russian armoured attack, along with 100 UK military trainers.

Russian forces in artillery drills(Zvezdanews/East2west News)
Mr Wallace added: “Any crossing into Ukraine, whether small or large, would be viewed as a breach of that sovereignty, against international law and an invasion.

“You can’t be half-pregnant, you are either invading a country or you are not.”

On Tuesday Mr Johnson warned the UK may deploy troops to protect Nato allies in Europe should Russia invade, saying Vladimir Putin faces “ferocious” Ukrainian resistance.

The PM said the UK and its allies stand ready to impose “heavy economic sanctions” on Russia, amid fears of “bloodshed comparable to the first war in Chechnya or Bosnia”.


Service members of the Ukrainian armed forces at combat positions near the line of separation from Russian-backed rebels outside the town of Avdiivka in Donetsk Region(REUTERS)
Mr Johnson told the House of Commons: “If Russia pursues this path, many Russian mothers’ sons will not be coming home.

“The response in the international community would be the same and the pain that would be inflicted on the Russian economy will be the same.”

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said his party “stands resolute” in supporting Ukraine.

Mr Johnson added: “The British Army leads the Nato battle group in Estonia and if Russia invades Ukraine, we would look to contribute to any new Nato deployments to protect our allies in Europe.”2

Keir Starmer said his party supports Ukraine(AFP via Getty Images)
He went on: “There is nothing new about large and powerful nations using the threat of brute force to terrify reasonable people into giving way to otherwise completely unacceptable demands.

“But if President Putin was to choose the path of bloodshed and destruction, he must realise that it’d be both tragic and futile, and nor should we allow him to believe that he could easily take some smaller portion of Ukraine - to salami-slice - because the resistance would be ferocious.”

The SAS-led UK evacuation mission is already in Ukraine preparing for an emergency evacuation, along with the Special Forces Support Group.

Foreign Office advice was posted stating: ”British nationals in Ukraine are requested to register their presence in Ukraine. This will allow us to provide the latest information but it is still advised that British nationals continue to read and follow FCDO Travel Advice.”

The request for UK nationals to register their details is a ’standard operating procedure’ by the FCDO when they planning an evacuation such as in the Lebanon, Sierra Leone and more recently Kabul.

A senior source said: “It could be a simple operation if we can get people to the airport and fly out, but if Moscow imposes an air embargo it will be a nightmare.

“We know the Germans and other countries are also planning to airlift their people and we are looking at using a road route to the Polish border, but will be the FCDO’s call.”

Đức tặng Ukraine 5.000 nón cối

https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/krisen/id_91521760/ukraine-konflikt-deutschland-will-ukraine-5000-militaerhelme-liefern.html

Bài này dzui, sẽ tóm tắt những câu thú vị

https://m.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/kopfschuetteln-ueber-lambrecht-vorstoss-deutschland-schickt-5000-helme-in-ukrain-78947602.bildMobile.html###wt_ref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F&wt_t=1643212730381

Germany’s offer to Ukraine of 5,000 helmets is ‘joke’, says Vitali Klitschko

The Guardian

Kyiv mayor ‘left speechless’ by move as Berlin faces pressure from other EU members to back military training mission

Daniel Boffey in Brussels and Philip Oltermann in Berlin
Wed 26 Jan 2022 13.23 EST
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Germany’s approach to the Russian threat to Ukraine has been described as a “joke” after Berlin responded to requests for arms by offering 5,000 protective helmets.

Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv and former world heavyweight boxing champion, who previously lived in Germany, said he could not understand the lack of support.

“The behaviour of the German government leaves me speechless,” he told the newspaper Bild. “The defence ministry apparently hasn’t realised that we are confronted with perfectly equipped Russian forces that can start another invasion of Ukraine at any time. What kind of support will Germany send next, pillows?”


Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, has declined to export weapons to Ukraine and has been accused in recent days of holding up the movement of arms offered by Nato allies.

Earlier this week Ukraine’s ambassador in Berlin had urged the German government to at least help by sending 100,000 helmets and protective vests.

However, Germany’s defence minister, Christine Lambrecht, announced on Wednesday that her country would instead supply just 5,000 military helmets. She claimed the offer sent “a very clear signal: we are on your side.”

Germany is also providing a complete field hospital, together with the necessary training, at a cost of €5.3m (£4.4m).

A Ukrainian serviceman outside Svitlodarsk, Donetsk
A Ukrainian serviceman outside Svitlodarsk in the eastern Donetsk region. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
The development will not ease concerns within the EU over Germany’s approach to the crisis on Ukraine’s border, where more than 100,000 Russian troops have been deployed.

Berlin is currently facing pressure to drop its objection to a EU military training mission in Ukraine. According to diplomatic sources, Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, raised the issue of the mission at a meeting of ministers from the 27 member states on Monday and asked opponents of the plan to reconsider.


Officials at the EU’s foreign affairs wing, the external action service, are expected to make further efforts in the coming weeks to convince Berlin to give the green light. Italy, Spain, Austria and Greece are among those who also oppose the proposal, according to EU sources.

Such EU training missions to build up armies have previously been established in Mali and Somalia. Germany instead favours establishing a “European peace facility” – a financing programme that could help in reforming the Ukrainian armed forces – which the government in Berlin believes would be better suited to EU goals.

A communique issued after a meeting on Monday of EU foreign ministers said only that the bloc was “was defining modalities of support to Ukraine also in the area of professional military education”.

A spokesperson for Borrell declined to comment on the confidential discussions. He said: “On the issue of a possible EU training mission to Ukraine I can confirm that discussions among the member states continue. We are intensifying the work in this regard. We hope that the decision, which is for the member states to take in unanimity, will be taken soon. On our side, we will continue accelerating the preparatory work to deploy such a mission if member states agree on that.

“In light of evolving developments, we need to move forward quickly. This message was clearly conveyed by the high representative for foreign affairs to the foreign ministers on Monday.”


Ukraine: Biden warns Putin of personal sanctions if Russia invades – video
While the US and the EU have stressed their unified position over the threat posed to peace from the 106,000 Russian troops on Ukraine’s eastern border, Scholz has faced heavy criticism both at home and abroad over his relatively cautious approach to the crisis.

“You hear nothing from him,” said one diplomatic source in Brussels. “The political signalling is really weak.”

The German government’s stance on the EU training mission has been cited by some in Brussels as evidence of Berlin’s fear of provoking the Kremlin.

There is also growing criticism of a delay in German approval on arms exports to Ukraine. Estonia has been seeking to send Soviet-made D-30 howitzers to Kyiv. The arms were previously stationed in the former German Democratic Republic, in east Germany, meaning approval is required from the German government.

Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, said on Tuesday that it was a “huge disappointment” that Berlin had been withholding permission.

january 25, 2022

Ukraine gets weapons from the West but says it needs more

Reuters

A self-propelled howitzer fires during artillery drills held by the 92nd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at a shooting range in an unknown location in eastern Ukraine, in this handout picture released December 17, 2021. Press Service of the 92nd Separate Mechanized Brigade/Handout via REUTERS

KYIV, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Western countries have stepped up arms deliveries to Ukraine but it says it needs more in order to resist Russia's bigger and better-equipped army.

Here is a summary of the military equipment Kyiv has bought or been given or promised, and the requests still outstanding.

The UNITED STATES has provided over $2.5 billion in military aid since 2014, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, coastal patrol boats, Humvees, sniper rifles, reconnaissance drones, radar systems, night vision and radio equipment. A bipartisan group of U.S. senators last week promised further supplies that could include Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, small arms and boats.

BRITAIN last week supplied a reported 2,000 short-range anti-tank missiles and sent British specialists to deliver training. It has also provided Saxon armoured vehicles.

BALTIC STATES Estonia is sending Javelin anti-armour missiles and Latvia and Lithuania are providing Stinger missiles.

TURKEY has sold Ukraine several batches of Bayraktar TB2 drones that it deployed against Russian-backed separatists in the eastern Donbass region, infuriating Moscow.

The CZECH REPUBLIC said last week it plans to donate a shipment of 152mm artillery ammunition.

GERMANY is ruling out arms deliveries to Ukraine but is co-financing a $6 million field hospital and providing the necessary training.

UKRAINE'S WISHLIST of items it wants to buy or obtain includes:

- Helicopters, communications systems and light armoured vehicles from the United States

- NASAMS surface-to-air missile system from Norway

- Self-propelled DANA artillery system from Czech Republic, and shells for Soviet-made artillery with calibers of 120 mm and above

- Medium and short range air defence systems

Reporting by Pavel Polityuk, editing by Mark Trevelyan, William Maclean

Czechs To Donate 4,000 Artillery Shells To Ukraine
 
AFP - Agence France Presse - barrons
January 26, 2022
The Czech defence ministry said Wednesday it would donate four thousand artillery shells to Ukraine in the coming days as the country faces the threat of invasion by neighbouring Russia.

"The gift worth 36.6 million Czech crowns (1.5 million euros, $1.7 million) was approved by the government today," defence ministry spokesman Jakub Fajnor told AFP.

The gift comprises 4,006 shells with a calibre of 152 millimetres, the defence ministry said on its website.

"The shells will be shipped to Ukraine in the coming days but I cannot say exactly when," Fajnor said.

Kyiv and the West have accused Russia of massing tens of thousands of troops on the Ukrainian border in preparation for a possible invasion.

Defence Minister Jana Cernochova said the gift was "a gesture of solidarity".

"We have been developing cooperation with Ukraine in the long run and we support its transition to democracy," she added.

The 152-millimetre calibre is not compatible with new cannons obtained by the Czech army, which have a calibre of 155 millimetres, the ministry said.

The Czech Republic joined NATO in 1999.

"Boosting Ukraine's ability to defend itself is in the interest of the Czech Republic, because it will reduce the risk of an armed conflict in eastern Europe," the ministry added.

Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said Tuesday he would visit Ukraine together with his Austrian and Slovak counterparts on February 7-8 in another display of solidarity.

frj/dt/har

Bài này phê bình chính phủ Đức, nói thì hay lắm, nhưng làm thì ngược lại.

Lời bình ldn: Đức từ trước tới nay khôn, tự bảo vệ chính mình, đặt quyền lợi của mình lên trên hết, sẽ không bao giờ làm mất lòng Nga. Tuy là đồng minh của Mỹ, nhưng cũng tùy chuyện mà theo, không như Anh, Canada, Úc & Co. luôn chung vai sát cánh với Mỹ 1 khi có xung đột chính trị trên thế giới.

https://www.welt.de/debatte/article236493795/Waffen-Deutschland-wuenscht-sich-offenbar-eine-wehrlose-Ukraine.html

Quân Nga tiếp tục di chuyển với tốc độ cao. Theo nguồn tin của các tình báo Tây phương thì có khoảng 112.000 đến 120.000 ngàn quân Nga đang đóng dọc biên giới Ukraine. Theo tình báo thì số lượng quân sẽ được gia tăng.

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article236506015/Ukraine-Russland-setzt-laut-Geheimdiensten-Aufmarsch-in-hohem-Tempo-fort.html

Russia has up to 120,000 troops on Ukraine border, with more coming

New York Post

Mark Moore

January 26, 2022 2:35pm 

 Updated

Russian artillery forces started military drills near the border of Ukraine

Russia has deployed dozens of combat-ready, highly mobile military formations comprising up to 120,000 troops along the border with Ukraine — and more could be on the way, reports suggested Wednesday.

Even as Russia denies that it is preparing an attack on its western neighbor, Moscow has gathered 60 so-called battalion tactical groups, each containing as many as 1,000 soldiers along with tanks, armored vehicles and mobile missile systems.

Russian diplomats leave US as tensions soar over UkrainePrice of oil tops $90 a barrel for first time since 2014‘Ball is in their court’: US responds to Russia’s Ukraine demands‘What next? Pillows?’: Kiev mayor pans German offer of helmets to Ukraine

According to Tass, the official Russian news agency, there are about 170 such rapid-response tactical outfits in the Russian army. Aviation groups, special operation forces and other units can be attached to them.

Meanwhile, NBC News foreign correspondent Richard Engel, citing a “Western intelligence official,” tweeted Wednesday that between 112,000 and 120,000 Russian forces are in the border region and quoted the official as saying there “could be a lot more” en route.

The reporter added that intelligence also indicated the Russian military had brought medical teams and other logistical support for a potential invasion to the border.

The Admiral Essen frigate leaves to join a naval exercise of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.Russian Defence Ministry/TASSThe US has stepped up security assistance to Ukraine amid fears of a Russian invasion.SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty Images

In a subsequent tweet that also cited a Western intelligence official, Engel warned that Russia was expected to step up cyber attacks against Ukraine, targeting TV, internet, state command and control installations and the power grid. 

SEE ALSO

US sends 300 Javelin missiles to Ukraine in latest military aid during Russia standoff

Ukraine’s foreign ministry was struck Wednesday by unidentified hackers who took down a promotional website.

It was later restored. 

That followed a cyber attack earlier this month on the computer systems of about 70 Ukrainian government agencies and information companies that splashed the warning “Be afraid and expect the worst” on their websites.  

Amid escalating tensions between Washington and Moscow, the US and some of its allies were considering sending additional troops into NATO countries in Eastern Europe, CNN reported. 

Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary are weighing accepting the deployments, which would number about 1,000 troops each and would be similar to the battle groups already stationed in the Baltic states and Poland, the report said. 

But not all 30 NATO members are on board.

Employees unload a plane with new US security assistance provided to Ukraine, at Kiev’s airport Boryspil on January 25, 2022.SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty Images

The US is in talks to send the additional troops on a bilateral basis with the UK, creating a “coalition of the willing,” an official told CNN.

SEE ALSO

Russia warns of retaliation if security demands not met during Ukraine crisis

US forces could operate unilaterally or under existing NATO command structures, the report said. 

The Pentagon on Monday put 8,500 US troops on “heightened alert” for potential deployment to Eastern Europe. 

Spokesman John Kirby said no decision had yet been made about deploying the military personnel as part of the 40,000-strong NATO Response Force in the region. 

“We still don’t believe Mr. Putin has made a final decision whether to conduct another incursion/invasion into Ukraine,” Kirby said. “We still think there’s time and space here for diplomacy and dialogue to work. … We still think there’s room and time for diplomacy, and the department wants to make sure that we help provide that … time and space for the diplomats.”

Along with the troops on the Ukraine border, Russian President Vladimir Putin has sent forces into Belarus, which borders Ukraine to the north, as part of military exercises planned for next month. 

Moscow has gathered 60 so-called battalion tactical groups.Russian Defence Ministry/TASS

Kirby said Monday that Moscow shows no sign of de-escalating the situation.

“They continue to add battalion tactical groups to their western border, to the border with Ukraine,” he said. “And in Belarus as well, the numbers there are increasing. So they have not only shown no signs of de-escalating, but they are in fact adding more force capability.”

Bài viết này nói về các nước láng giềng của Ukraine và quan điểm cũng như cách xử sự của các nước ấy trong xung đột Ukraine rất thú vị, khá nhiều tin tức.

Ai không biết tiếng đức, có thể dùng Google translator dịch ra tiếng việt. Tuy không chuẩn 100% câu cú, nhưng các ý chính, đại ý đều được google translator dịch khá đúng.

Cuối tuần tôi rảnh sẽ lược phỏng dịch.

Ukraine: Angst und Argwohn

Zeit

Nicht nur die Ukraine fürchtet eine russische Invasion. Auch ihre Nachbarstaaten bereiten sich auf ein solches Szenario vor. Doch nicht alle suchen die Nähe des Westens.

Von Ulrich Krökel und Johanna Roth und Thomas Roser, Belgrad

27. Januar 2022

Soldaten am Hafen von Visby auf der schwedischen Insel Gotland. Schweden hat seine Truppenpräsenz wegen der Ukraine-Krise verstärkt.  Karl Melander/​TT News Agency/​Reuters

Der Aufmarsch von mehr als 100.000 russischen Soldaten in ihrem Grenzgebiet versetzt die Ukraine in Sorge. Der Westen droht Russland mit Konsequenzen, sollte es tatsächlich zu einer Invasion kommen. Ein solches Szenario alarmiert aber nicht nur die USA, Deutschland oder Frankreich. Staaten in der unmittelbaren Nachbarschaft – ob sie nun eine direkte Grenze zur Ukraine haben oder etwas weiter entfernt liegen – sind ebenfalls beunruhigt. Alle wollen Entschlossenheit demonstrieren, Nato-Mitglied oder nicht – nur einer sucht demonstrativ die Nähe Russlands.

Übersicht:Polen: Eine existenzielle Bedrohung
Baltikum: Das Albtraumszenario schlechthin
Skandinavien: Solidarität und Annäherung
Ungarn: Keine Berührungsängste
Der Süden: Angst vor Russlands Einfluss

Polen: Eine existenzielle Bedrohung

Kaum ein Land in der EU ist so tief gespalten wie Polen. Rechtsnationale Regierung und linksliberale Opposition stehen sich wie Feinde gegenüber. Nur in einem herrscht Einigkeit: Eine existenzielle Bedrohung für die Republik geht allein von Russland aus. Vier von fünf Menschen in Polen fehlt jedes Vertrauen zum großen Nachbarn im Osten.

Angst und Argwohn sind vor allem historisch begründet. Rund zwei Jahrhunderte litt Polen unter russisch-sowjetischer Fremdherrschaft. Auch deshalb strebte das Land nach dem Ende des Kalten Krieges mit aller Macht in die Nato. 1999 war es so weit, fünf Jahre vor dem EU-Beitritt. Zufall war das nicht: Die USA gelten in Polen als einzige relevante Schutzmacht.

Dennoch: Trotz Nato-Mitgliedschaft ist die Angst vor russischen Expansionsgelüsten geblieben. Während des russisch-georgischen Krieges 2008 reiste der damalige Präsident Lech Kaczyński nach Tiflis und prophezeite: "Heute Georgien, morgen die Ukraine, und später kommt auch mein Land an die Reihe." Durch die Krim-Annexion 2014 sah man sich in Polen in den schlimmsten Befürchtungen bestätigt.

Daher zweifelt auch in der aktuellen Ukraine-Krise in Warschau niemand daran, dass Präsident Wladimir Putin zu einer Invasion bereit ist. Als "extremste Form der Aggression" bezeichnet der polnische Ministerpräsident Mateusz Morawiecki den russischen Truppenaufmarsch. Der Premier hatte schon im Herbst, während der Migrationskrise an der Grenze zu Belarus, erklärt: "Der Drahtzieher ist Putin. Er ist entschlossen, das Russische Reich wieder aufzubauen. Wir werden Widerstand leisten."

Darauf bereitet sich Polen seit Jahren vor. Die Ausgaben für Verteidigung liegen durchgängig über den von der Nato geforderten zwei Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts. Die polnische Armee gilt als eine der schlagkräftigsten in der Allianz. Hinzu kommen rund 30.000 Freiwillige, die in den 2016 geschaffenen "Territorialstreitkräften" dienen. Im Herbst kündigte die Regierung eine weitere Aufrüstung an.

Der größte Wunsch in Warschau blieb bislang allerdings unerfüllt: eine dauerhafte Stationierung von US-Militär in Polen. Das untersagt die Nato-Russland-Grundakte von 1997, und bislang haben sich alle US-Regierungen penibel daran gehalten. Nach der Krim-Annexion entsandte Washington zwar 4.500 Soldatinnen und Soldaten nach Polen, die rotieren aber und haben nicht die Abschreckungswirkung einer US-Militärbasis.

Noch größer ist in Warschau die Frustration über die Haltung in Berlin. Das betrifft weniger die militärische Kooperation in der Nato. Politisch jedoch gilt Deutschland im Verhältnis zu Russland als unsicherer Partner – spätestens seit der damalige Kanzler Gerhard Schröder in enger "Männerfreundschaft" mit Putin 2005 den Bau der ersten Nord-Stream-Pipeline auf den Weg brachte.

Sollte es zu einem offenen Ukraine-Krieg kommen, wäre Polen als Nachbarstaat mit einer 530 Kilometer langen Grenze direkt betroffen. Die Bereitschaft ist groß, im Ernstfall Flüchtlinge aufzunehmen. Über Details der militärischen Einsatzplanung schweigt sich das Verteidigungsministerium in Warschau dagegen aus.

Baltikum: Das Albtraumszenario schlechthin

Es ist der 25. Februar 1994, als Lennart Meri beim altehrwürdigen Hamburger Matthiae-Mahl das Wort ergreift. Der estnische Präsident spricht noch nicht lange, als ein anderer Gast aufsteht und türenknallend den Raum verlässt. Dieser zweite Mann ist niemand anderer als Wladimir Putin, damals 41 Jahre alt und Vizebürgermeister in Sankt Petersburg. Ein Eklat – doch was hatte Meri so Schreckliches gesagt?

Nichts, was der heutige estnische Präsident Alar Karis oder seine Kollegen in Lettland und Litauen nicht auch sagen könnten: In Moskau glaube man, das "Problem der russischen Minderheiten in den Nachbarländern nicht allein mit diplomatischen Mitteln lösen zu können". Meri unterstellte dem Kreml Neoimperialismus und forderte, die Staaten zwischen Russland und Deutschland in den Westen zu integrieren. Auch die Ukraine.

Die Sorgen von einst sind im Baltikum die Ängste von heute. Zwar sind die drei Republiken 2004 der Nato und der EU beigetreten. Doch mehr denn je werfen die Regierungen in Tallinn, Riga und Vilnius Putin – der nun seit 22 Jahren in Moskau an der Macht ist – vor, ein russisches Imperium wieder errichten zu wollen. Spätestens seit der Annexion der ukrainischen Krim 2014 ist ein "hybrider Eroberungskrieg" im Baltikum das Albtraumszenario schlechthin.

Dabei, so die Sorge, könnte die starke russische Minderheit dem Kreml als Hebel dienen. Moskau verteilte im besetzten ostukrainischen Donbass eigene Pässe und warnte vor einem "Genozid". Auf diese Weise werde ein Vorwand für eine militärische Intervention geschaffen. Doch ist ein russischer Angriff auf die Nato-Staaten im Baltikum überhaupt denkbar? Schließlich gibt es die Beistandspflicht nach Artikel 5 des Nordatlantikvertrags.

In den USA ist das Verständnis für die Ängste in Osteuropa groß. Aber völlig sicher ist sich in Estland, Lettland und Litauen niemand, dass die westlichen Partner bereit wären, für das kleine Baltikum in einen großen Krieg zu ziehen. Zumal in der benachbarten russischen Exklave Kaliningrad atomar bestückbare Iskander-Raketen stationiert sind.

Umso dankbarer ist man, dass einige Nato-Staaten angesichts der aktuellen Ukraine-Eskalation ihre Militärpräsenz in der Region erhöhen. So verlegt Dänemark vier F16-Kampfjets nach Litauen und entsendet eine Fregatte in die östliche Ostsee. Auch die Niederlande haben see- und landgestützte Einheiten in Bereitschaft versetzt. Zudem sind als Folge der Krim-Annexion seit 2016 in den baltischen Staaten Nato-Eingreiftruppen mit jeweils rund 1.000 Soldatinnen und Soldaten stationiert.

Die Führung der "Battlegroup" in Litauen hat die Bundeswehr inne. Dennoch gilt Deutschland in der Region als Problempartner. Entscheidend dazu beigetragen haben die Pipeline-Projekte Nord Stream 1 und 2. Die Röhren, durch die russisches Erdgas am Baltikum vorbei nach Deutschland strömen kann, wecken Urängste vor Sonderbeziehungen zwischen Berlin und Moskau. 

Skandinavien: Solidarität und Annäherung

Gotland ist eine schwedische Idylle: rote Häuschen, Rosensträucher, malerische Küste. Seit einigen Tagen sind auf der Insel allerdings auch Soldaten auf den Straßen zu sehen. Und das gar nicht unbedingt mit Blick auf die Ukraine allein: Weil die russischen Aktivitäten auch in der Ostsee zunehmen, hat die schwedische Regierung Militär und gepanzerte Fahrzeuge nach Gotland geschickt. Auch hier spielt Kaliningrad eine Rolle: Die Insel Gotland liegt nur wenige hundert Kilometer von der russischen Enklave entfernt, wo Russlands Marine einen großen Stützpunkt samt Raketenbasis hat und immer wieder öffentlichkeitswirksame Manöver abhält. Man könne einen bewaffneten Angriff auf Schweden nicht ausschließen, sagte der schwedische Verteidigungsminister Peter Hultqvist.

Zeitgleich tauchten verstörende TikTok-Videos auf, in denen Kindern und Jugendlichen als vorrangigen Nutzern der Plattform Angst gemacht wird: "Der Krieg kommt", heißt es darin etwa oder "Russlands Plan für die Invasion". Die Herkunft der Clips ist unklar, die Unsicherheit umso größer: Ist das hier psychologische Kriegsführung? Geht es darum, die schwedische Bevölkerung – vor allem die Jüngsten – zu verunsichern, sie mürbe zu machen? Und steht am Ende wirklich auch Schweden im Fokus eines möglichen russischen Angriffs?

Auch Dänemark reagiert entschlossen und will im Rahmen der Nato-Truppenverstärkung mehr Soldaten in Osteuropa bereitstellen. Wie Schweden hat es allerdings keine gemeinsame Landgrenze mit Russland, betont stattdessen die Solidarität mit der Ukraine einerseits und die Verbundenheit zu den westlichen Partnern andererseits. Finnland und Norwegen dagegen haben eine direkte Landgrenze von jeweils mehreren hundert Kilometern Länge in äußerst dünn besiedeltem und schwer zu überwachendem Gebiet. Entsprechend groß ist die Besorgnis auch in diesen Ländern.

Die hohe Sensibilität für russische Militärbewegungen, und seien sie noch so klein, reicht in den skandinavischen Ländern bis in den Kalten Krieg zurück. Die räumliche Nähe zu Russland beziehungsweise der Sowjetunion prägte damals große Ängste in den Bevölkerungen, die bis heute nachwirken. Politisch gab es dagegen durchaus einen gewissen Pragmatismus; gerade in Helsinki schien man stets darauf bedacht, Russland nicht zu provozieren.

Während Norwegen und Dänemark Nato-Gründungsmitglieder sind, halten Schweden und Finnland viel darauf, kein Teil eines Militärbündnisses zu sein. Sie pflegen dafür eine enge Kooperation mit der Nato, nehmen an gemeinsamen Manövern teil und machen Rüstungsgeschäfte mit Nato-Staaten. Ein Beitritt hatte in den Bevölkerungen beider Länder aber bisher keine Mehrheit. Die aktuelle Krise könnte das allerdings ändern – und damit genau das Gegenteil der Forderungen Russlands bewirken, die Erweiterung der Nato zu stoppen. Eine Umfrage in Finnland zeigte zuletzt: Der Anteil derer, die gegen eine Mitgliedschaft sind, ist auf ein historisches Tief gesunken.

Die neue schwedische Ministerpräsidentin Magdalena Andersson gab bereits bekannt, mit Nato-Generalsekretär Jens Stoltenberg über eine Vertiefung der bisherigen Partnerschaft gesprochen zu haben. Und der finnische Präsident Sauli Niinistö sagte Interview mit der ZEIT, Finnland wolle selbst über einen Beitritt bestimmen und diese Souveränität nicht von Russland einschränken lassen. Anfang dieser Woche reisten die Außenminister beider Länder zu Gesprächen mit Stoltenberg nach Brüssel.

Ungarn: Keine Berührungsängste

Einer fällt in Europa aus der Reihe: Ungarns nationalpopulistischer Premier Viktor Orbán hat beim Umgang mit Wladimir Putin keinerlei Berührungsängste. Während der russische Militäraufmarsch an den ukrainischen Grenzen in ganz Europa für Beunruhigung sorgt, reist Orbán am kommenden Montag nach Moskau, um mit Putin über den Ausbau des Atomkraftwerks in Paks, vermehrte Gaslieferungen und gemeinsame Forschungsprojekte im All zu plaudern. Ungarn dürfe nicht zur "Beute" eines "Ost-West"-Konflikts werden, weist der ungarische Außenminister Péter Szijjártó jede Kritik an Orbáns Moskaubesuch zurück: Auch US-Präsident Joe Biden treffe sich schließlich mit seinem russischen Amtskollegen. 

Statt der von Szijjártó beklagten "Hysterie" im Ukraine-Konflikt fordert Ungarn verstärkte diplomatische Anstrengungen zu dessen Beilegung. Tatsächlich gibt Orbán in der EU gern Putins Anwalt: Seit Jahren spricht er sich beispielsweise gegen die von der EU verhängten Sanktionen gegen Russland aus. Leider sei eine antirussische Politik in Westeuropa "zur Mode geworden", klagte der ungarische Regierungschef bereits 2017. 

Während Ungarn als einziger EU-Staat (und Nato-Mitglied) eine derart enge Abstimmung mit Moskau sucht, sind die Beziehungen zwischen Budapest und Kiew wegen des Dauerstreits um die ungarische Minderheit im Nachbarland belastet. Die Ukraine reagierte im September zudem verstimmt auf ein neues ungarisch-russisches Energieabkommen für Gaslieferungen über die Turkstream-Pipeline, weil sie selbst dabei umgangen wird. 

Und nicht zuletzt sind die Beziehungen zu Putin ein wichtiger Wirtschaftsfaktor. Laut Szijjártó ist Ungarns Warenaustausch mit dem "strategisch wichtigen Partner" Russland 2021 um 51 Prozent gestiegen. Kritik aus dem Westen weist er als scheinheilig zurück: So seien seit der Verhängung der EU-Sanktionen 2015 die deutschen Exporte nach Russland um 21 Prozent gewachsen.

Der Süden: Angst vor Russlands Einfluss

Mit Ausnahme von Ungarn zeigen sich die EU-Nachbarn der Ukraine im Süden angesichts des russischen Truppenaufmarschs zunehmend besorgt: Rumänien, die Slowakei, aber auch der Schwarzmeer-Anrainer Bulgarien fürchten nicht nur eine Invasion der Ukraine, sondern auch den Versuch Russlands, seinen Einfluss auszudehnen. 

Bei ihren Forderungen nach einer Erhöhung der Nato-Präsenz bauen die EU-Nachbarn vor allem auf die USA. So hat die slowakische Regierung vor zwei Wochen ein bilaterales "Verteidigungskooperationsabkommen" abgesegnet, das der US-Armee für zehn Jahre die kostenfreie Nutzung von Militärflughäfen einräumt. Umgekehrt haben die USA Investitionen in die Modernisierung der slowakischen Armee gelobt. Innenpolitisch ist der Deal nicht unumstritten. Das Ziel des Abkommens sei es, "die US-Armee näher an die russischen Grenzen zu bringen", wettert der linkspopulistische Ex-Premier Robert Fico. 

Die oberste Priorität für Rumänien sei eine "größere US-Militärpräsenz" verkündete Staatschef Klaus Johannis Mitte Januar schon vor der Entscheidung aus Paris und Washington, zusätzliche Truppen in seinem Land zu stationieren. Gegenüber Russland müsse die Nato sowohl auf den Dialog als auch auf die Politik einer "dezidierten Entmutigung" setzen. 

Auf russische Forderungen, Nato-Truppen aus Bulgarien und Rumänien abzuziehen, reagierte man in beiden Ländern verärgert. "Als Nato-Mitglied entscheiden wir unabhängig, wie wir in Koordination mit unseren Partnern unsere Armee organisieren", so Bulgariens Premier Kiril Petkow. Ähnlich wie in Skandinavien zeigt sich hier, wie Putins offensichtliches Bestreben, den Westen zu spalten, eher ins Gegenteil umschlägt.

Und doch: Die Verantwortung in dieser Krise sehen die südlichen Nachbarn auch in Berlin. Eine "ambivalente Haltung" wirft die slowakische Zeitung Sme der Bundesregierung vor: "Wenn die Russen die Ukraine angreifen, werden die Deutschen wohl eindeutig Jein sagen. Doch wenn Europa nicht handelt, steht es vor einer Rückkehr zu der Zeit vor 1989."

Seltsames Störfeuer gibt es derweil aus Kroatien. Dessen Präsident Zoran Milanović hatte kürzlich gesagt, die Ukraine als "einer der korruptesten Staaten der Welt" habe keinen Platz in der Nato. Kroatien beteiligt sich als Nato-Mitglied mit der Entsendung von Soldaten – allerdings nach Polen, nicht in die Ukraine, wie Milanović behauptete. Seine Äußerungen sind vermutlich eher im Kontext eines innenpolitischen Konflikts zu lesen: Milanović ist Sozialdemokrat, aber äußert sich zunehmend nationalistisch. Er konkurriert mit Regierungschef Andrej Plenković, der umgehend dementierte: Kroatiens Politik sei die der Unterstützung der Ukraine – und der Präsident habe seine Äußerungen wohl im "Zuckerschock" getätigt.

Người Việt ở Ukraine - wiki

Tính đến năm 2014 có khoảng 10.000 người dân gốc Việt ở Ukraina. Nguồn khác thì đưa ra con số 30.000 người.[1] Ở thủ đô Kyiv có một nghìn người nhưng đến cuối năm 2014 thì ước đoán có đến 10.000 người.[1] Nơi tập trung đông nhất trước kia là Kharkiv, có khoảng 5.000-6.000 người.[2] Ngoài ra một số sinh sống ở hải cảng Odessa[3] độ 3.000 người (2016) tập trung ở khu Làng Sen (chính tên là khu Lotos) và buôn bán ở Chợ Cây số 7.[4] Mariupol cũng có vài chục gia đình người Việt.[5]

Người gốc Việt đa số làm nghề tiểu thương, buôn bán lẻ.

Người Việt ở Ukraine mong 'điều xấu nhất không xảy ra

Thứ năm, 20/1/2022 | vnexpress

Người Việt sống gần biên giới Ukraine - Nga hy vọng căng thẳng giữa hai bên không leo thang thành xung đột, khi đời sống người dân còn khó khăn.

"Người dân thành phố Kharkov lo lắng về tương lai do những diễn biến căng thẳng hiện nay và thông tin chưa rõ ràng. Mọi người đều hy vọng mọi thứ sẽ không diễn biến xấu đi", Mạnh Hùng, nghiên cứu sinh Đại học Hàng không Kharkov đã sống ở Ukraine gần 10 năm qua, chia sẻ với VnExpress về tình hình ở Ukraine khi căng thẳng với Nga lên cao.

Thành phố Kharkov nơi Hùng ở là thủ phủ của tỉnh cùng tên ở miền đông Ukraine và tiếp giáp Nga. Đây là một trong ba thành phố tập trung đông cộng đồng người Việt nhất tại Ukraine, cùng với thủ đô Kiev và thành phố cảng Odesssa ở phía nam.

Binh sĩ Ukraine chuẩn bị vượt sông Aidar trong diễn tập gần Novoaidar, tỉnh Luhansk ngày 14/12/2021. Ảnh: Reuters.

Đợt triển khai lực lượng quân sự của Nga gần biên giới Ukraine cùng những cảnh báo chiến tranh liên tục từ chính phủ ở Kiev và các nước phương Tây gần đây khiến dư luận Ukraine nhiễu loạn thông tin. Trong khi Mỹ và Ukraine cáo buộc Nga chuẩn bị tấn công, Moskva bác bỏ, khẳng định mọi động thái quân sự ở biên giới phía tây hoàn toàn vì mục đích phòng thủ.

Giữa những thông tin căng thẳng leo thang gần biên giới, Hùng cho hay chợ và siêu thị ở Kharkov vẫn hoạt động ổn định, không có hiện tượng người dân mua hàng tích trữ hay dè chừng khi ra đường. Đi lại trong thành phố chưa có dấu hiệu bất thường hay hạn chế nào, trừ những quy định phòng chống Covid-19 do chính phủ Ukraine ban bố.

Hôm 17/1, Cục Bảo vệ Dân sự thuộc Cơ quan Quản lý Nhà nước tỉnh Kharkov thông báo kích hoạt hệ thống còi báo động công cộng để kiểm tra kỹ thuật trong hai ngày sau. Tuy nhiên, người Việt sinh sống tại Kharkov cho hay đây chỉ là hoạt động thường niên và còi báo động cũng không vang lên trong ngày 19/1.

Lo lắng khi Nga, Ukraine và NATO chưa thể đạt thỏa thuận cho cuộc khủng hoảng hiện nay, nhưng Hùng vẫn luôn cố gắng suy nghĩ theo hướng tích cực nhất và "hy vọng điều không ai mong muốn sẽ không xảy ra".

Vị trí thành phố Kharkov của Ukraine. Đồ họa: Wikipedia.

Anh chia sẻ cộng đồng người Việt ở thành phố đang quan tâm nhiều hơn đến hồi phục kinh tế sau đại dịch Covid-19. "Tôi chỉ mong sao xung đột không xảy ra, đất nước yên bình để kinh tế của bà con người Việt lẫn bản địa không chịu thêm một gánh nặng", Hùng nói.

Ông Huỳnh Nghĩa, một người Việt đã sống ở Ukraine hơn 30 năm qua, cũng nhận thấy tình hình an ninh ở Ukraine không đến mức nghiêm trọng như báo chí phương Tây đưa tin và cuộc sống ở Kharkov vẫn diễn ra bình thường.

Ông tin chiến tranh Nga - Ukraine sẽ không nổ ra, nhưng lo ngại căng thẳng song phương có thể tiếp tục ảnh hưởng lớn đến đời sống và kinh tế của người dân.

Kharkov đã bị cắt giao thương với vùng Donbas do phe ly khai kiểm soát và biên giới Nga, khiến bà con người Việt ở chợ đầu mối Barabashova mất đi hai nguồn khách hàng quan trọng. Giá khí đốt tăng cũng đang tác động đến mọi mặt đời sống, từ các ngành công nghiệp, chế biến thực phẩm, đến sưởi ấm, nước nóng cho mùa đông, khiến giá cả hàng hóa và dịch vụ tăng theo.

"Lò sưởi trong ký túc xá và các gia đình ngày trước lúc nào cũng ấm, nhưng giờ không được thoải mái như thế nữa. Giá khí đốt hay nước nóng đã tăng", Hùng cho biết.

Bên trong khu chợ của người Việt tại Barabashova, thành phố Kharkov, phía đông Ukraine. Ảnh: Nhân vật cung cấp.

Sau 10 năm sống ở Ukraine, Hùng nhận thấy tình hình kinh tế nước này khó khăn hơn rất nhiều sau thời điểm 2014. Tình hình mới chỉ tốt hơn một chút vài năm gần đây, khi mọi người dần cởi mở hơn, đi lại tương đối an toàn, trước khi thông tin về căng thẳng với Nga xuất hiện.

Cộng đồng người Việt ở Kharkov hiện có khoảng 3.000 người, giảm gần một nửa so với thời điểm năm 2014. Do tình hình kinh doanh gần đây gặp nhiều khó khăn, nhiều bà con đã chuyển sang nước khác hoặc thành phố khác để làm ăn.

Chứng kiến nhiều biến động của Ukraine, từ phong trào biểu tình Euromaidan năm 2014 đến cuộc xung đột ở vùng ly khai Donbas, ông Nghĩa cho biết chiến sự từng có lúc diễn ra cách nơi ông sống chỉ khoảng 100 km. Người Việt sống ở thành phố lúc đó rất lo lắng, người thân từ Việt Nam liên tục gọi điện hối thúc về nước, nhưng cuộc sống ở Kharkov cuối cùng vẫn an toàn.

"Tôi chỉ mong mọi chuyện sắp tới được bình an, yên ổn, để chính phủ Ukraine có thể tập trung cho những giải pháp về kinh tế, ổn định cuộc sống người dân và thu hút đầu tư", ông Nghĩa bày tỏ.

* Tên nhân vật đã được thay đổi.

TT Biden cảnh báo quân Nga tháng 2 sẽ tiến vào Ukraine.

https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2022-01/ukraine-konflikt-russland-truppenaufmarsch-usa

Ukraine crisis: Biden warns Russia may invade next month

BBB

28 January 2022

Russian tanks near the border with Ukraine
IMAGE SOURCE,REUTERS

Warnings Russia might invade Ukraine follow tens of thousands of Russian troops massing on the border

US President Joe Biden has warned there is a "distinct possibility" Russia might invade Ukraine next month, the White House says.

Russia meanwhile says it sees "little ground for optimism" in resolving the crisis after the US rejected Russia's main demands.

The build-up of tens of thousands of Russian troops on Ukraine's borders in recent weeks has stoked fears of an invasion.

Russia denies it is planning an attack.

The US president made the comments in a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday.

"President Biden said that there is a distinct possibility that the Russians could invade Ukraine in February," White House National Security Council spokesperson Emily Horne said.

"He has said this publicly and we have been warning about this for months."

During their talk, President Biden "reaffirmed the readiness of the United States along with its allies and partners to respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine", a White House statement said.

Mr Zelensky said they "discussed recent diplomatic efforts on de-escalation and agreed on joint actions for the future".

Axios, citing unnamed sources, suggested the two disagreed on how imminent the threat was. Some military experts suggest Russia may be waiting for the ground in Ukraine to freeze so they can move in heavy equipment.

Another important phone call will take place on Friday, when French President Emmanuel Macron speaks directly with Russia's Vladimir Putin.

If Russia were to invade Ukraine, it would not be the first time. Russia annexed Ukraine's southern Crimea peninsula in 2014. It is also backing rebels who seized large swathes of the eastern Donbas region soon afterwards, and some 14,000 people have died in fighting there.

Video caption,
Watch: Ukrainian Marta Yuzkiv is preparing to defend her country but says she doesn't want war

Concerns for gas pipeline's future
Also on Thursday, the US threatened to halt the opening of a key pipeline that would send Russian gas to Western Europe if Russia invades Ukraine.

Nord Stream 2 would run from Russia to Germany, and on Thursday officials in Berlin said the project could face sanctions if Russia attacks.

Western allies say they will target Russia's economy if it invades, and the latest comments signal a hardening of their stance.

The 1,225km (760-mile) pipeline took five years to build and cost $11bn (£8bn). The energy project, which would run under the Baltic Sea, is designed to double Russia's gas exports to Germany.

But as yet it has not started operating, as regulators said in November it does not comply with German law and suspended its approval.

Is Russia preparing to invade Ukraine?
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline and the Ukraine crisis
How big is the Russian military build-up?
Russia denies any plans to invade but last month made wide-ranging security demands from the West, including that Ukraine never be allowed to join the Nato military alliance.

The US rejected this key demand, while offering what it called a "serious diplomatic path forward" to Moscow.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday that the US response left "little ground for optimism", but added that "there always are prospects for continuing a dialogue, it's in the interests of both us and the Americans".

The proposals will not be made public, but US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the document made their "core principles" clear, including Ukraine's sovereignty and its right to choose to be part of security alliances such as Nato.

Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said the formal response does not address Russia's "main concern" about the alliance's expansion.